COVID Numbers Fall, But Concern Over First Delta Cases Confirmed

Phnom Penh: The Ministry of Health issued the daily press release on the morning of 27 July 2021, confirming the discovery of 685 new positive cases of COVID-19 and 775 cases that were treated and the patients discharged. Another 19 deaths were reported.

At least 262 cases were reportedly imported, mostly from Thailand, with the other 423 linked to the post 20/2 local infections, which would bring the total to the latest outbreak to around 63,829 (with 262 imported- sources may vary slightly- another source changes wildly).

Provincial releases in past few hours (*unclear what days these have been counted as and are only added as a rough guide- due to the Ministry of Health no longer announcing the regional numbers- unsure of what the ‘cut off point’ is for the releases):

Kampot: 28 cases, 140 treated, 1 death,  Oddar Meanchey: 166 cases (6 from quarantine centers- 147 arrived from Thailand, 13 local), 30 treated, Svay Rieng: 50 cases, 73 treated, 1 death, Preah Vihear: 4 cases, 29 treated, Stung Treng: 2 cases, Koh Kong: 69 cases, 11 treated, Battambang: 98 cases, 14 treated, 2 deaths, Siem Reap: 97 cases, 46 treated, 1 death, Ratanakiri: 25 cases, Kratie: 7 cases, 2 treated

This brings the total number of cases to around  74,386 cases with 66,725 cases treated. The death toll has risen to by another 19 to 1,324

So far 1.78% cases have resulted in deaths- a slight rise. Please note- these numbers may not be 100% accurate

The Ministry of Health reported the detection of 39 cases of the Delta variant (21 imported cases, 4 health staff in Oddar Meanchey and 6 local cases having contact with infected migrant workers- 4 in Siem Reap & 2 in Kampong Thom). 8 cases were reported not having contacts with migrant workers (5 in Oddar Meanchey, 2 in Siem Reap & 1 in Kampong Thom).

David Benaim says:

The delta variant has today been announced in 8 community cases in OMC, SR & Kampong Thom in last few days plus imported cases, cases, deaths and vaccines follow a similar pace.

The Delta variant (sources in comments)- All approved vaccines prevent serious Delta disease by around 90% according to WHO- Research does differ heavily between efficacy on infection for delta, but efficacy against serious illness seems to support this statement- Cambodia has rolled out 3x as many vaccines or more as nearby countries (Thailand, Laos, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam)- Delta’s time from infection to symptoms is shorter, 4 days instead of 6 as median- A carrier is expected to infect 5-8 people (known as R0) if no preventative measures are taken, the original COVID strain was 2-3 people, alpha is 70% more transmittable and Delta an additional 55%.

Vaccines, masks, social distancing etc. all reduce these substantially- Since only a small sample of cases are checked for variants through sequencing this number is likely to be higher than 8 but not dominant- Having observed 19 countries with delta, it takes around 3-5 weeks from low delta prevalence to a noticeable rise in cases (aside from 3 countries which pushed down their delta factor), there are of course many contributing factors though – Since 68% of adults have had one dose, unless many miss their second dose, over 70% of adults should fully vaccinated by then.- Risk can be mitigated by avoiding the 3 C’s (closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings)

Cases- 423 local cases reported today, a rise from yesterday but the moving average is still low, delta should trigger this to rise but should be a few weeks- 775 recoveries so active cases fall slightly- 7.3k tests were reported today

Vaccines- the government today approved private institutions to acquire any WHO authorized vaccines for sale- 156k doses yesterday, 97k were 1st, 59k were 2nd- 6.8M 1st doses to date, 41% of pop, 68% of adults- 4.5M 2nd doses to date, 27.5% of pop, 45% of adults- 11.4M total doses, 69 per 100 people

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